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    Here is what we got for you on Wednesday...



    1. Wednesday August 15, 2007 (3:15 am New York Time) Switzerland


    Retail Sales Forecast 5.0% Previous 7.2%


    Retail sales calculates the sales at the Retail level, a strong number indicates a strong economy and is good for the currency. This indicator makes up a large portion of the data scheduled on Friday, therefore a higher surprise number might push the market
    further with expectations of better GDP.


    We usually do not trade the news with CHF pair, so we'll just watch this news and the price action afterwards. If we can see a possible entry, then we'll call it in the Trade Room.




    2. Wednesday August 15, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK

    MPC Minutes Forecast 8-1 Previous 6-3
    Average Earning Index Forecast 3.5% Previous 3.5%


    Our focus will be on the MPC minutes, which was the vote count for last interest rate decision by the MPC. Previous number showed a 6-3 vote count. With the current volatility of the cable, if the vote came out 9-0 then we'll probably see the market drop the GBP even more, since the expectation for a near rate hike is diminished. If the vote came out either 7-2 or 6-3, then there might be a possibility of GBP buy back, and the GBP/JPY pair might rise again.


    If we get 2 extra votes for rate hike (6-3) or 1 less vote of for unchanged (9-0), we might see the market move 50 pips. Historically, we have about 80% of probability to see such move in an hour.




    3. Wednesday August 15, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA


    CPI Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
    CPI Core Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%


    Our focus will be on the CPI Core (exclude Food and Energy), It is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households (wikipedia).

    If the number comes out higher than expected, we'll look to SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD. If the number comes out lower than expected, we'll look to BUY GBP/USD or EUR/USD.

    Since the USD has been on a BULL Trend, our surprise factor will be 0.2% for worse number and 0.1% for better number. For Example, at 0.3% release will BUY, and 0.0% release will SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD.


    Historically, there is an 80% chance for the market to move 50 pips if the S. Factor is hit.




    4. Wednesday August 15, 2007 (9:00 am New York Time) USA


    TIC Net-Long Term Forecast 64.0B Previous 126.1B


    TIC measures the monthly difference in cross-border foreign and domestic purchases of long-term securities (i.e., bonds with an original maturity longer than one year). For example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US securities, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign securities, the net reading would be $70 billion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because foreigners must first convert their domestic currency before they can purchase the nation's assets. This can dramatically elevate currency demand. Traders watch this indicator closely as it provides several insights into international currency flows.



    (ForexFactory.com)


    TIC will be looked at more closely than ever with the recent sub-prime mortgage problem in the US. But it would be a very confusing news release to trade. Just remember that if the numbers are better than forecast, then it will be Pro Dollar. So if you are in SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD, then you are fine. Just be aware of this news release and watch the price action afterwards.




    5. Wednesday August 15, 2007 (9:10 am New York Time) USA

    Industrial Production Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.5%
    Capacity Utilization Forecast 81.8% Previous 81.7%


    Our focus will be on Industrial Production, An economic report that measures changes in output for the industrial sector of the economy. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Although these sectors contribute only a small portion of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), they are highly sensitive to interest rates and consumer demand. This makes Industrial Production an important tool for forecasting future GDP and economic performance. (wikipedia.com)


    The way we trade this report is based on previous reports. Many banker traders or hedge fund managers will wait for this report to come out before committing to a direction since its release is at 9:15am. Therefore it is very difficult to put a surprise number to it unless it is like 2.0% (which is like 10 times the expected number). However, if the number did come out close to forecast or just a little conflict with previous numbers (TIC and PPI), we might start to see the market moving towards either BUYING USD or SELLING USD by assuming the trends established by previous news releases. _____



    (Special Message From Henry)


    Guys, GBP/JPY is looking very strong for a dive down to the 230 or even the 221 area eventually... Big Hedge Funds are literally losing their portfolio right now.. We'll see the market get worse before it gets better. On as side note, I guess I have done a good job doing the newsletter since Andy went on holiday, now Andy has decided that I should continue doing it with his help. So if anyone finds a typo or misspelled word somewhere, please know that Andy is perfect, but Henry is not.
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    Если USA Core CPI 0% или ниже, покупаем евро или фунт.
    Если 0.3% или выше, то продаём евро или фунт.
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    Ничего не делаем, Core CPI вышел 0.2%, равный прогнозу.
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    Что ж, от теории перешли к практике.

    Увидел значение прогноза и смог войт и в сделку на окончании минуты 10:30 по времени терминала. За эту пропущенную минуту половина новостного движения уже улетела.

    А в ленте новостей Доу Джонс в терминале (реал-счёт) эти данные вышли только в 10:34 по времени терминала.

    Поставил тейк-профит и стоп-лосс по 30 пунктов от входа.
    Тейк также совпал с 50 пунктами ниже начала (т.е. самой верхней части) новостной свечи М1, о которых говорилось в рассылке.

    Сделка заняла чуть более трёх часов, так что трудно сказать, было ли вызвано это движение данной новостью или чем-то другим. Скорее всего, резкое падение, в результате которого отработал тейк-профит, было вызвано какой-нибудь другой новостью.

    Закрытие в нескольких пунктах от лоу - это скорее везение.
    И, кстати, стоп-лосс едва не зацепило - тоже везение.

    Второй блин получился приторный :)
    _____

    На тест-счёте вы видите сделку по XAU - не обращайте на неё внимания.
    Я как-то раз забыл, что это счёт для публичного тестирования, и открыл там сделку просто чтобы посмотреть размер свопов. Потом поставил стоп-лосс так, чтобы закрыло в ноль, но это заняло ещё один день, так что свопы ещё накапали и получилось чуть больше нуля.
     
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    Here is what we got for you on Thursday...


    1. Thursday August 16, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK


    Retail Sales Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%


    Retail sales calculates the sales at the Retail level, a strong number indicates a strong economy and is good for the currency.


    Our surprise factor is 0.4%, if the number comes out higher, we'll look to BUY GBP/USD, and if the number comes out lower, we'll look to SELL GBP/USD. We'll be very careful when BUYING GBP/USD and take less profit because of the general negative market sentiment on Sterling Pound.


    If our surprise factor is hit, we have 80% of chance to see the market move 50 pips within an hour.


    ** Other News Releases (medium to low impact releases) **


    5:00am Euro CPI Forecast -0.1% Previous 0.1%
    8:30am US Housing Start Forecast Previous 147M
    8:30am US Building Permits Forecast Previous 141M
    8:30am CAD Foreign Sec. Pur. Forecast 1.20B Previous -3.11B
    12:00pm US Philly Fed.Index Forecast 9.0 Previous 9.2


    All of the above news don't have much potential to move the market or have shown to be unpredictable with Surprise Factors. The main idea is to be aware of them and trade in the general direction of these news releases instead of against them if actual releases are drastically different.
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    На сегодняшней новости ничего заработать не получилось бы.
    А вот потерять - легко.

    Впрочем, периодические убытки - это неотъемлемая часть любой торговой системы. Главное, чтобы прибыли было больше.

    Интересно, что новостное движение в 50 пунктов было, но началось оно за несколько минут до публикации данных и закончилось через минуту после выхода данных.
     
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    "На этой неделе из важных фундаментальных показателей только парочка данных по Канаде завтра и данные в пятницу, а в пятницу Энди не торгует."
    (интересно, что они обошли молчанием JPY Interest Rate Announcement в четверг... наверно, не считают это важной новостью?..)
    ---
    I just wanted to send you a quick email and let you know that we don't have any news coming out on Monday in case you are waiting for it. As a matter of fact, aside from few Canadian news releases tomorrow, you can practically take a vacation this week, since the only other news trading day would be Friday, and it is one of the days that we don't trade.
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    1. Tuesday August 21, 2007 (7:00 am New York Time) Canada


    CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous -0.2%
    CPI Core m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%


    Our focus will be on the CPI Core (exclude Food and Energy), It is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households. (wikipedia)


    Our surprise factor will be 0.3%, if the release comes out higher, we'll SELL USD/CAD, and if the release comes out lower, we'll BUY USD/CAD.


    Historically, if our S.Factor is hit, the market will move 50 pips within 1 hour.



    2. Tuesday August 21, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) Canada


    Retail Sales Forecast -0.5% Previous 2.8%
    Retail Sales Core Forecast -0.3% Previous 2.3%


    Our focus will be on Retail Sales Core, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of the nation, excluding volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency.


    Our surprise factor will be 0.5% on the Core number. If our surprise factor is hit, we can expect the market to move 35 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 80%. USD/CAD is currently at a crucial stage with higher Crude Oil prices and better economic data. If the actual release number is higher, then we'll look to SELL USD/CAD; if the release number is lower, we'll look to BUY USD/CAD.


    Take into accounts of the CPI numbers at 7:00am, if the numbers do not conflict with each other, then we might see an extended move that will last until the end of New York Session.
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    For Wednesday August 22, 2007 we have Japanese Interest Rate announcement at a To Be Determined time. It is expected to be unchanged at 0.5% and usually it comes out between 7:00pm to 1:00am New York Time. What's important with this news release will be future rate hike possibilities. If we get a strong hawkish comments from BOJ's Fukui, which indicates a possible September Rate hike, we will see more volatility in the GBP/JPY pair.



    Even though for the past 6 times interest rate announcements would hit the wire around 11:30pm EST, but Japanese press would leak the release news hours before the actual announcements. Therefore, if you are interested in trading this report, you need to be standing by from 7:00pm EST until 1:00am, or the entire Asian session.


    Last interest rate announcement was a surprise 0.25% hike, Yen strengthened temporary then collapsed completely across the board. The reason was that BOJ didn't foresee any future hikes in the next few months, and carry trades such as GBP/JPY just drove the market into further Yen weakness.


    Tomorrow will be very important for GBP/JPY, if Fukui's tone sounds remotely hawkish, then we might see some capitulation of the pair, if Fukui maintain his current stance on interest rates, then we might see the beginning of the resurrection of GBP/JPY. Either way, this will be a very important fundamental announcement to watch for.
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    Энди советует никогда не торговать в пятницу, так что просто буду наблюдать, не трогая тест-счёт.
    _____

    Again, we do not recommend trading on Friday's.

    Here is what we got for you on Friday...


    1. Friday August 24, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK


    GDP q/q Forecast 0.8% Previous 0.8%


    Our focus will be on the GDP, is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP is the primary measure for the economy's health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest rate.
    This news release is crucial because all eyes are on the GBP/JPY. As we have seen what BOJ's Fukui said on future rate hikes of Yen and the sharp upward correction (500+ pips) of GBP/JPY, this might set the tone for all Yen crosses for the day.


    Our surprise factor is 0.2%, if the number comes out higher, we'll look to BUY GBP/USD, and if the number comes out lower, we'll look to SELL GBP/USD.


    Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour.




    2. Friday August 24, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) US


    Durable Goods Forecast 1.0% Previous 1.3%

    Durable Goods Core Forecast 0.6% Previous -1.0%


    Durable Goods calculates purchase orders of goods that have a life-expectancy of 3 years or more, instead of goods that are being used up all at once. Examples of durable goods are cars, appliances, business equipments, etc... Core Durable goods is a derivative of Durable goods that excludes Transportation element, which is a better indication of the nation's economic status, since transportation elements fluctuate from months to months. Forex traders watch this report closely because a strong number shows a healthy outcome for the economy.


    Our focus will be on the Core Durable Goods, or Durable Goods Ex. it is what most bankers focus on. This report has been losing its impact since the beginning of the year, and the actual release number must be a huge surprise for the market to react.


    If the difference is over 1.5% higher, then I would look to SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD, if the difference is 1.5% lower, then I would look to BUY GBP/USD or EUR/USD. Remember the idea is to get a surprise number, if the number is very close to release price, then there is no trade whatsoever.





    3. Friday August 24, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) US


    New Home Sales Forecast 826K Previous 834K


    New Homes Sales calculates the yearly number of new residential homes that were sold during the previous month. A higher number has a positive effect on the nation's currency because the housing market is a leading indicator for the overall economy.


    This report has gained a lot of attention recently, along with the Existing Home Sales, are being watched closely by the Feds as to a possible comeback of real estate prices, further interest rate decisions, and as a baseline measurement on the nation's economic health. It has been classified as a High Impact Report.


    Historically, if the number comes out 80K more or less than the forecast number, a move of 30~40 pips in GBP/USD can be expected with in the hour about 80% of the time.


    If the numbers come out lower than the forecast, we would look to BUY GBP/USD or EUR/USD, if the number come out higher than forecast, we would look to SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD. Choose the currency pair with the best potential for movement to trade.

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