Форум трейдеров » Торговые стратегии » ТС "Прорыв торгового диапазона" 1.3.2010
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    Feb 05 10 06:12 GMT |
    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3663; (P) 1.3782; (R1) 1.3843; More.

    EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.3668 and has met mentioned target of cluster support at 1.3737. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 next. On the upside, break of 1.4025 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in EUR/USD even in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, however, break of 1.4578 resistance will leave the fall from 1.5143 in three wave corrective structure and mixes up the outlook.
     
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    Feb 05 10 06:07 GMT |
    GBP/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5683; (P) 1.5801; (R1) 1.5871; More

    GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.5174 so far and remains weak. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen. Sustained break of 1.5706 key cluster support will target 100% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.5410 next. On the upside, above 1.5797 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But upside should be limited below 1.6067 resistance and bring fall resumption.

    In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503. However, note that break of 1.6456 resistance will in turn shift favor to the case that recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely developing into consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
     
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    Feb 05 10 05:41 GMT |
    GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.09; (P) 141.44; (R1) 143.54; More

    GBP/JPY dropped sharply overnight to a low as 139.38 before recovering slightly above 139.26 key support. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside. Firm break of 139.26 support will confirm our bearish view that whole decline from 163.05 is resuming and should target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. On the upside, above 142.38 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 145.26 resistance and bring fall resumption.

    In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is possibly resuming as consolidation pattern from 139.69 has likely finished at 150.68 already. Break of 139.26 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. Break will further affirm the case that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.90 is resuming for another low below 118.81. This will remain the preferred view as long as 150.68 resistance holds.
     
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    Несомненно на торгуемых парах установился даунтренд и можно было продолжать удерживать открытые позиции. Но! Во-первых, пятница, а ТС рассчитана на краткосрочную торговлю. Во-вторых, профит $640.0 за два торговых дня на контракте 0.1 все таки существенный, к тому же депозит восстановлен до начального уровня $10000.0 А это уже психология. Ко всему рынок бесконечен, а жадность ведет к бедности. Все позиции закрыты, ордера сняты. Анализ сделок будет проведен позднее.
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    06.02.2010 03.00 СЕТ

    Текущее состояние счета по закрытым позициям: 10003.73 USD
    Profit/Loss по закрытым позициям с начала периода тестирования: + 0.04 %
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    Анализ сделок за 4 и 5 февраля 2010 года
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    Фунт.......................
     

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